What Should Small Fleets Expect From the Trucking Market in November 2025

By
Amy Chavez
–

There haven’t been new CDL or English Proficiency rule changes since the October enforcement actions, but the freight market has shifted again, and for small carriers, that’s the part that affects profitability the most.

Here’s what the numbers are telling us as of November 10–16 vs. November 3–9:

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Episode Highlights

Spot Market Activity

DAT-tracked spot activity shows:

  • Spot load posts: +9.1%
  • Spot truck posts: +18.3%

More trucks entered the market than freight posted — and that usually puts downward pressure on rates unless demand rises with it.

What This Means for You

With trucks entering the spot market nearly twice as fast as new loads:

  • Expect increased competition on load boards
  • Rates may soften in markets where capacity surged
  • You may need to prioritize profitable lanes over high RPM
  • Smart region-based decisions may matter more than national averages

Weeks like this reward carriers who stay flexible and watch the data closely.

Freight Market Breakdown

Below are the national rate levels publicly available from DAT summaries and Trendlines-based reports.

Dry Van

  • National average van spot rate: ~$2.08/mile
  • Load-to-truck ratio remains moderate, with available capacity increasing

This reflects a softer van market as we head into late November, meaning carriers should watch regional variations carefully.

Reefer

  • National reefer spot rate: ~$2.47–$2.52/mile (publicly available range from DAT-based summaries)

Reefer normally tightens before Thanksgiving, but overall volume pressure and increased competition may keep rates from climbing significantly.

Flatbed

  • National flatbed spot rate: ~$2.52/mile

Flatbed is in its normal seasonal slowdown, but certain markets still show short-term strength depending on construction and manufacturing demand.

Spotter Index Insights

Inside our newsletter, we break down the Spotter Index, which highlights where carriers are earning the highest profit per hour, not just the highest rate per mile.

Recent trends include:

  • Midwest dry-van lanes performing above national averages
  • Southeastern reefer pockets tightening
  • Flatbed showing isolated high-paying outbound lanes

These shifts help owner-operators know where demand is building — or fading — week by week.

Diesel Price Update (EIA — November 17, 2025)

The newest EIA report puts national diesel at:

$3.868 per gallon

Inventories continue tightening across multiple regions, and depending on holiday demand, we could see another increase before month-end.

Tips for Owner-Operators & Small Fleets

1. Prioritize strong regional freight — Midwest & Southeast remain more stable.
2. Watch profit per hour, not just RPM — diesel increases change your break-even fast.
3. Recalculate your cost per mile weekly — especially with fuel rising.
4. Double-check broker credit — soft markets = higher risk of slow or missed payments.
5. Keep deadhead tight — aim for 10% or less this week.

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FAQs

1. What are the current spot market rates in November 2025?

Dry van is around $2.08/mile, reefer around $2.47–$2.52/mile, and flatbed around $2.52/mile, based on publicly available DAT summaries.

2. Why do truck posts increase faster than load posts?

More carriers moved into the spot market, creating extra capacity while freight only rose modestly.

3. How does a truck post increase affect my rates?

More capacity usually means stronger broker leverage and softer rates unless regional demand spikes.

4. Is reefer still expected to tighten before Thanksgiving?

Yes, but the rise in competition may limit how much rates actually climb.

5. What does the Spotter Index tell small carriers?

It highlights where profit-per-hour is highest — often different from where RPM is highest.

6. Why is diesel rising in November?

Tighter inventories and seasonal demand increases.

7. What regions look strongest for dry van this month?

Midwest markets are outperforming national averages based on spot-rate behavior.

8. Where can I get weekly updates on the best markets?

Subscribe to This Week in Trucking’s FREE newsletter for weekly insights on fuel prices, market updates, and interviews with successful carriers who share real strategies that work. Subscribe here.

9. How can owner-operators stay profitable during high competition?

Reduce deadhead, choose stronger regional pockets, negotiate clearly, and track CPM weekly.

10. Should I avoid certain markets this week?

Markets with large jumps in truck posts and slow load growth may offer lower margins.

Full Transcript

Speaker: [00:00:00] From this weekend trucking, this is hot right now and I’m Amy. There has not been too much news these past days on the CDL crackdown and ELP proficiency, but that doesn’t mean things are slowing down for carriers.

Speaker: When regulations stay quiet, The next biggest factor in your profitability is the freight market and diesel prices,

Speaker: and both have shifted again this week.

Speaker: if you’re running under your own authority, these updates will help you know where the money’s at and what places to avoid.

Speaker: But before we get into it, don’t forget to subscribe so you’re never miss an update. Your support helps us keep ringing weekly videos your way.

Speaker: Let’s start with spot market activity compared to the past week, the spot market has picked up. Momentum spot load posts are up by 9% and spot truck posts are up by 18.3%.

Speaker: The jump in truck posts tells us that capacity is loosening.

Speaker: There are more trucks in the market than loads posted, and that usually brings downward pressure in rates. Now let’s break down per equipment type. So let’s start with dry van.

Speaker: Spot rates are [00:01:00] at $2 and 8 cents a mile as of November, 2025, flatbed has a national average of $2 and 48 cents a mile andre first bought rate is at $2 and 52 cents as of November as well.

Speaker: Here’s what this means for you.

Speaker: When truck posts jump faster than load posts, it just means more competition.

Speaker: This means you can expect competition, on load boards, and more negotiation from brokers.

Speaker: Let me know in the comments what you’re seeing in lanes this week. More freight or more competition. Now let’s move to diesel prices. The current national average diesel price is $3 and 86 cents.

Speaker: the current national average on highway diesel price is $8 and 86 cents per gallon. That’s slightly higher than the prior week, and the trend continues upward.

Speaker: with spot rates moving and diesel prices climbing.

Speaker: Keep an eye on these weekly patterns

Speaker: so you can avoid slow lanes and remain profitable through the end of the year.

Speaker: Here’s some tips if you’re running a small fleet. prioritize short haul and regional freight this week.

Speaker: with more trucks chasing freight. long haul lanes, might face [00:02:00] more underbidding.

Speaker: Try to watch the Midwest and the southeast closely historically, according to spotter index patterns,

Speaker: these regions, stabilize faster when capacity rises. They are good hedge markets right now. This is the type of data you would be getting every Monday to your inbox when you subscribe to this weekend Trucking’s free newsletter. We show you the hottest markets and the coldest markets to avoid.

Speaker: also try to reduce your deadhead by 10%.

Speaker: high capacity weeks usually equals to empty miles. For the carriers who did not plan ahead

Speaker: Then make sure to check a broker’s credit score before accepting freight.

Speaker: When a market softens payment fraud rises,

Speaker: slow pay or no pay. Brokers rise. Every time capacity increases.

Speaker: We also send broker alerts in our newsletter so you know how to avoid the shady players in the industry.

Speaker: And lastly, run your cost per mile weekly and not monthly. With diesel prices spiking up to $3 86 this week.

Speaker: It is necessary you keep recalculating to stay up to date so you know which loads are profitable. And remember, if you want [00:03:00] more quick updates like this. Don’t forget to subscribe to this weekend Trucking’s free newsletter. We break down the best cities to pick up loads by equipment type Plus we send you interviews with carriers sharing their real cost per mile and profits so you can see what’s working for others in the industry right now.

Speaker: The link is always available in the description of our videos.

Speaker: And let me know in the comments what freight conditions you’re seeing right now. Don’t forget to subscribe and drive safe.


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Article By

Amy Chavez
Amy is the editor and producer of the This Week In Trucking podcast alongside managing social media content with a focus on providing helpful information and clear communication. She enjoys making content that informs and connects, helping audiences engage with stories that matter.

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