Early Signs the Freight Market Is Recovering in 2026

Amy Chavez

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January 22, 2026

DOT Cracks Down on CDLs as 2026 Begins

The start of 2026 is bringing major regulatory and market shifts that small carriers and owner-operators cannot afford to ignore. From aggressive DOT enforcement over CDL oversight to easing diesel prices and a sudden spike in spot market activity, the tone from regulators and the market is clear: compliance and preparedness will separate surviving carriers from those forced off the road.

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Episode Highlights

DOT Penalizes California Over CDL Enforcement

The Department of Transportation has stripped $160 million in federal funding from California after federal investigators found serious failures in how the state handled commercial driver’s licenses issued to non-domiciled drivers. According to FreightWaves, thousands of CDLs remained active even after drivers’ legal U.S. status expired, despite prior federal warnings.

California missed a January 5 deadline to cancel more than 17,000 improperly issued CDLs, triggering the penalty. The DOT has also warned North Carolina that it could lose its CDL authority over similar compliance failures.

What this means for carriers:
Federal tolerance for weak CDL oversight is over. In 2026, carriers must independently verify CDL validity and driver eligibility. Relying on state systems alone is no longer enough to protect your authority.

FMCSA Keeps Drug and Alcohol Testing Rates for 2026

The FMCSA confirmed drug and alcohol testing rates will remain unchanged:

50% drug testing
10% alcohol testing

While the rates stayed the same, enforcement has tightened. With the Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse fully connected to state DMVs, violations now follow drivers across carriers and states until they complete the federal return-to-duty process.

Carriers must:

Run Clearinghouse checks before hiring
Conduct annual checks on all drivers
Remove drivers immediately if prohibited
Maintain accurate compliance records

For drivers, skipped tests, refusals, or positive results can sideline a career and cost thousands of dollars to resolve.

Diesel Prices Finally Ease

There is some relief at the pump. According to the EIA, the national on-highway diesel average is now $3.45 per gallon, continuing a downward trend. Lower fuel prices don’t fix weak rates, but they do help protect margins when freight is competitive.

Spot Market Activity Surges

According to DAT Trendlines, the spot market saw a sharp increase to start the year:

Spot load posts: +80.1% week over week
Spot truck posts: +58.1% week over week
Year over year: Load posts up more than 54%

Demand is rising faster than capacity, signaling improving negotiating power for carriers in early 2026, even if conditions vary by lane.

What This Means for Small Carriers in 2026

The message from regulators and the market is consistent:

CDL enforcement is tightening nationwide
Compliance mistakes carry heavier consequences
Fuel costs are easing
Spot demand is strengthening

Carriers that keep clean records, verify drivers carefully, and choose lanes strategically will be in a stronger position as the year unfolds.

If you want weekly breakdowns like this — including spot market trends, compliance updates, and real cost-per-mile insights from carriers — sign up for the free This Week in Trucking newsletter. We focus on what actually impacts small fleets and owner-operators, not headlines without context.

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FAQs

Is the freight market improving in early 2026?

Yes — according to DAT Trendlines, spot load posts surged more than 80% week over week in mid-January, signaling stronger demand compared to late 2025.

What were diesel prices during the week of January 14, 2026?

The national on-highway diesel average was approximately $3.45 per gallon, offering some margin relief for carriers despite uneven freight rates.

How is DOT enforcement affecting the trucking market in 2026?

The DOT is increasing oversight on CDL issuance and compliance, which may reduce available capacity as improperly licensed drivers are removed from service.

What does tighter CDL enforcement mean for small carriers?

Small carriers must verify driver eligibility more carefully, as compliance failures now carry greater financial and operational risk.

How should carriers prepare for the 2026 freight market?

Carriers should focus on clean compliance records, lane discipline, cost-per-mile tracking, and taking advantage of rising spot demand where rates justify the miles.

Can factoring help during slower freight periods?

Yes, when used to stabilize cash flow rather than chase volume. Checkout Bobtail.com

Full Transcript

From This Week In Trucking, this is HOT RIGHT NOW, and I’m Amy.

We’re kicking off 2026 with some major moves from the DOT and FMCSA — from states being penalized over CDL issues, to diesel prices finally giving carriers some relief, and a big shift in the spot market to start the year.

But before we get into the details, don’t forget to subscribe so you never miss an update! Your support helps us keep bringing trucking news that actually matters to small carriers.

The Department of Transportation has officially stripped California of $160 million in federal funding, citing serious failures in how the state handled CDLs issued to foreign drivers.

According to FreightWaves, federal investigators say California allowed thousands of non-domiciled CDLs to remain active even after drivers’ legal status in the U.S. expired — a move the DOT says created major safety and compliance risks.

The DOT had warned California to fix the issue. The state failed to revoke the licenses in the January 5 deadline not canceling more than 17,000 commercial truck driver’s licenses— and now the penalty is here.

And California isn’t alone. The DOT has also threatened to revoke North Carolina’s CDL authority over similar concerns tied to oversight and compliance failures.

What this means for carriers:
Federal tolerance for loose CDL enforcement is officially over. States that don’t tighten up risk losing funding — and carriers that don’t verify driver credentials risk getting caught in the middle.

If you’re hiring in 2026, checking CDL validity and immigration status isn’t optional anymore — it’s protection for your business.

The FMCSA confirmed that drug and alcohol testing rates are staying the same in 2026 —
50% for drugs and 10% for alcohol.

So the rules didn’t change.
But what has changed is how serious the consequences are.

Since the Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse is now fully connected to state DMVs, a failed test doesn’t just affect one job anymore. It can follow a driver everywhere and even put their CDL at risk until they complete the federal return-to-duty process.

Every carrier is required to:

Run a Clearinghouse check before hiring any driver
Run an annual check on all drivers
Pull a driver immediately if they show a prohibited status
Keep clear records of every check

This isn’t optional — it’s part of protecting your authority.

If you hold a CDL, here’s the simple truth:

Federal rules apply no matter what your state allows.
Even if marijuana is legal where you live, a positive test can still take you off the road.

Trying to switch carriers won’t help.
Every carrier has to check the Clearinghouse before hiring.

And skipping a test counts as failing one.
No-shows, sample problems, or refusing to test are treated the same as a positive result.

Getting back isn’t easy or cheap.
Most drivers who get a violation have to pay for:

Evaluations
Treatment
Return-to-duty testing
Follow-up testing for at least a year

That process can cost thousands of dollars out of pocket.

Testing rates stayed the same — but the system is tighter now.
For carriers, clean compliance protects your business.
For drivers, one bad decision can sideline your career.

Now for some good news at the pump.

According to the EIA, the national on-highway diesel price is now $3.45 per gallon, down 0.018% from last week. That continues a downward trend carriers have been waiting on for months.

Lower diesel prices mean:

Better margins
More breathing room on tight loads
And finally, a little relief on cost per mile

This doesn’t fix a bad rate — but it absolutely helps protect profit when freight is competitive.

Let’s talk freight.

According to DAT Trendlines, spot market activity surged to start the year.

Jan 05–Jan 11 vs Dec 29–Jan 04

Spot load posts: +80.1%
Spot truck posts: +58.1%

Dec 2025 vs Nov 2025

Spot load posts: +50.3%
Spot truck posts: –3.0%

Dec 2025 vs Dec 2024

Spot load posts: +54.6%
Spot truck posts: –3.1%

What this tells us:
Demand is rising faster than capacity — especially compared to last year. That’s a positive signal for carriers this Q1.

It doesn’t mean every lane is hot. But it does mean negotiating power is finally starting to tilt back toward trucks in many markets.

Here’s the big picture for small carriers:

The DOT is done giving states slack on CDL enforcement
FMCSA compliance pressure stays high
Diesel prices are easing
And the spot market is showing early signs of strength

This is shaping up to be a year where clean compliance + smart lane selection can make a real difference in profitability.

If you want more quick updates like this, sign up for This Week In Trucking’s FREE newsletter.
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And let me know in the comments — does this feel like the first real market shift we’ve seen in a while?

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